Self-introduction

Due: June 21, 2017 at 11:00am.

Write a plain text e-mail to me. (Do not attach a wordprocessor file such as Microsoft Word.) Give it the subject "FH11011 Homework #4 by <your name>" and send it to turnbull@sk.tsukuba.ac.jp.

The subject must contain the course number FH11011 in hankaku romaji. (If you are registered for FH61011, use FH11011 anyway. This is for sorting incoming mail, and not related to university administration.)

You will automatically receive an acknowledgment email. (If you don't, tell me.) Keep your email and the acknowledgment as proof of completion of the assignment.

Problems

Think of two situations in a story (movie, anime, novel, etc), where someone jumped to a conclusion. (It doesn't have to be the same person or the same story.) In one case the conclusion was correct, in the other incorrect.

1. Describe each situation, explaining what conclusion the character arrived at, why (based on what evidence) they decided that, and whether it was correct or incorrect.
2. Kahneman says (p. 79, para. 1) that sometimes "jumping to conclusions" is efficient, and sometimes it is risky. In each situation you described in part one, explain whether you think it was efficient or risky.
3. How does the correctness or incorrectness of the person's conclusion affect your assessment of whether jumping to a conclusion was "efficient" or "risky"?
4. What does the halo effect that Kahneman describes (p. 82) imply about the effect of "correctness" on your assessment of "efficiency"?

Due: June 21, 2017 at 11:00am.

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